OPERATIONAL DAMAGE FORECASTING CHAIN

The overflow hazard modelling chain has been improved to better simulate large river flows and associated overflow. These improvements will subsequently make it possible to better estimate the impact of climate change on flooding in Metropolitan France.

Thomas Onfroy, Étienne Leblois, Jean-Philippe Naulin and David Moncoulon

n this article, CCR’s own model to estimate earthquake-induced insurance costs is presented for Metropolitan France. This model is based on (i) a stochastic earthquake generator, (ii) an analysis of the vulnerability of the French building stock, and (iii) CCR’s market portfolio. This approach makes it possible to estimate the spatial variability of insurance costs on different scales: commune, department or nation-wide. The generation of earthquakes over time also allows the establishment of cost-return period relationships. The model presented in this article is the first comprehensive model to estimate seismic risk in Metropolitan France.

Corentin Gouache, Jean-Philippe Naulin, Pierre Tinard, François Bonneau and Julien Rey

This article presents the main features of a multi-peril damage calculation platform that CCR has chosen to develop in 2022. The main emphasis is on the robustness of the calculation kernel, the traceability of results and the flexibility of the architecture. The code will also be scalable and portable to modern architectures.

Léa Boittin, Gilles Kieffer, Frédéric Drapeau, Jean-Philippe Naulin, Damien Dronsart and David Moncoulon